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Uganda

First oil approaches. Lake Albert crude flows in 2026. Saga sees opportunity in aquaculture and fisheries alongside the megaproject.

The country today

Uganda's 48 million people live in a $45 billion nominal GDP economy. President Museveni is monetizing Lake Albert oil. TotalEnergies and CNOOC are executing Tilenga and Kingfisher developments. EACOP — 1,443 km from Hoima to Tanzania — is 82% complete with July 2026 commissioning target.

Energy — oil and gas

Uganda holds 1.4 billion barrels in the Lake Albert Basin. First oil is targeted H2 2026 from Tilenga and Kingfisher, ramping to 230,000 bpd by 2027–28. Lake Albert crude is light, undersaturated, water-sensitive. TotalEnergies holds 56.67% of Tilenga; CNOOC holds 28.33% of Kingfisher.

The blue economy

Lake Victoria is Africa's largest inland fishery. Uganda's sector yields roughly 200,000 tonnes per year — Nile perch (55–60%) and tilapia (35–40%). IUU is severe. Aquaculture targets 50,000 tonnes/yr by 2030 from current 3,000–5,000 tonnes. Norad's Fish for Development is exploring tilapia genetics improvements.

The Norwegian corridor

Norway's embassy in Kampala opened in 1972. Equinor was the first foreign operator in Lake Albert (2006) and maintains operational presence. Norad ran Oil for Development until 2024. Fish for Development is active at NOK 80–120 million annually.

What Saga sees

Lake Albert oil is not a strong near-term technology vendor play — development drilling is controlled by TotalEnergies and CNOOC. Adjacent blue-economy plays are stronger: Lake Victoria fisheries surveillance (0–12 months), aquaculture hatchery genetics (12–24 months), and post-first-oil production optimisation (24–36 months).

How we work

Saga is in Uganda 2–3 times per year with standing relationships at Equinor's Lake Albert office and Norad's Fish for Development coordination. We connect with UNOC technical teams and district authorities on livelihood advisory.

At a glance

Population
48 million
GDP
$45 billion (World Bank 2025)
Hydrocarbons
Oil; 1.4 bn barrels Lake Albert Basin; first oil target H2 2026
Principal NOC
UNOC (15% Tilenga, Kingfisher)
Norwegian footprint
Embassy Kampala · Equinor Lake Albert operator (20-year presence) · Norad Fish for Development
Saga focus areas
Lake Victoria fisheries surveillance, Aquaculture hatchery genetics, Post-first-oil production optimisation, Makerere University partnerships

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© Saga Advisory AS · Stavanger & Cape Town · saga-advisory.com