Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote has signalled a preference for Mombasa, Kenya, over Tanzania's Tanga as the host site for a proposed 650,000-barrel-per-day oil refinery estimated to cost between USD 15 billion and USD 17 billion — a reversal that came less than three weeks after he publicly pledged to build the facility in Tanga. The shift, attributed to Mombasa's port depth, regional market size, and the need for policy protection against cheap fuel imports, underscores how quickly the calculus for mega-refinery investments in East Africa can change.
The proposed facility, if built, would rank among the largest refineries on the African continent. Dangote cited Mombasa's deeper harbour as a critical logistical advantage, arguing it would allow very large crude carriers to discharge directly rather than requiring lightering operations — a consideration that materially affects feedstock economics at the scale of 650,000 barrels per day. Market access was the second major factor: Kenya and its East African Community neighbours represent a large and growing refined-products consumer base that Dangote believes would underpin refinery economics. He also flagged the importance of import-protection measures, noting that without tariff or policy cover against subsidised or discounted fuel from third-party exporters, refinery margins would be difficult to sustain.
The Tanga location had attracted attention partly because of Tanzania's existing oil and gas infrastructure ambitions and its Atlantic-to-Indian-Ocean corridor positioning, but the port depth constraint appears to have been decisive. It is not yet clear whether Tanzanian authorities have formally responded to the change in preference or whether any binding commitments to Tanga were ever formalised. The current instrument is a stated preference, not a signed agreement, a block award, or a project financing commitment. No final investment decision has been announced for either location.
For the broader East African energy landscape, the site-selection debate illustrates the infrastructure prerequisites — particularly port capability and regulatory frameworks — that determine where capital-intensive downstream projects land. A 650,000-barrel-per-day refinery of this scale would require enormous upstream crude supply chains, marine terminal infrastructure, product pipeline networks, and utility systems. Each of those represents a distinct procurement and engineering domain, but they remain speculative until a host-country agreement and project financing structure are in place.
Norwegian service companies should treat this as an early-watch item rather than an active procurement opportunity. The project has not reached FID, no EPC or FEED contract has been announced, and the site has not been confirmed. Monitoring Dangote's follow-on engagements with Kenyan government authorities and any formal MoU or concession agreement will be the appropriate next step before any commercial positioning.